应6163银河线路检测中心微分方程与动力系统课题组邀请，加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学Yuan Yuan教授作客【致敬百年】微分方程与动力系统云端专题讲坛，欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！

【报告题目】：COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics and Final Epidemic Size

【报告时间】：2020年6月23日，晚7：30-9：00

【报告平台】：zoom

点击链接直接加入会议：https://zoom.com.cn/j/91104326944

【会议 ID】: 91104326944

【报告摘要】：We propose two kinds of compartment models to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 virus and to explore the potential impact of the interventions and to disentangle how transmission is affected by age differences. Starting with an SEAIQR model by combining the effect of exposure, asymptomatic and quarantine, then extending the model to two groups with ages below and above 65 years old, and classify the infectious individuals according to their severity, we focus our analysis on each model with and without vital dynamics. In the models with vital dynamics, we study the dynamical properties including the global stability of the disease free equilibrium and the existence of endemic equilibrium, with respect to the basic reproduction number. Whereas in the models without vital dynamics, we address the final epidemic size rigorously, which is one of the common but difficult questions regarding an epidemic. Finally, using the data of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Canada and Newfoundland & Labrador province, we can parameterize the models to estimate the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size of disease transmission.

【报告人主页】：https://www.math.mun.ca/~yyuan/